Lithium iron phosphate is expected to replace Sanyuan as the "dominant"?

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Following the introduction of lithium iron phosphate models by Tesla and Xiaopeng, Weilai, who has always been focusing on high-end roads and benchmarking BBA, has also joined the camp.

Recently, some media reported that Weilai will upgrade the existing 70-degree (kWh) battery pack. The new battery pack uses lithium iron phosphate batteries. The plan will be released in the fourth quarter of this year. According to sources who have contacted the senior leaders of the Ningde era, 'the new battery is still supplied by the Ningde era, and now it is doing B-sample testing.'

In fact, as early as last year, there was a rumor that 'NIO has already covered a production line of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Ningde era'. It is said that NIO was now testing the lithium iron phosphate version of the model. And it is expected to launch related models this year.

However, it was later proved that the production line packaged by Weilai was originally reserved for Tesla in the Ningde era and was used by Weilai to produce 100-degree ternary battery packs. In other words, Wei Lai's promotion of lithium iron phosphate battery packs this time is not the rumored production line, and may have to open a new production line. Of course, it does not matter which production line Weilai chooses, what is important is that Weilai's iron-lithium model is really coming!

Following Tesla, Weilai, etc., entered the game one after another, lithium iron phosphate against the three yuan, and has more and more satisfying confidence, or will usher in a brilliant 'renaissance era.' Not long ago, the chairman of CATL, Zeng Yuqun, also stated that CATL will gradually increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the next 3 to 4 years, and the production capacity of ternary batteries will gradually decrease. And BYD is also determined to 'hard knock' with the 'iron-lithium' blade battery.

1. 'Myth' in sales of lithium iron phosphate models

Speaking of it, compared to the lithium iron phosphate strategy of other friends, Weilai is obviously slower. As early as June of the previous year, the Tesla Model 3 lithium iron phosphate version has now appeared in the 'model catalog.' And BYD Han, which is equipped with blade batteries, also went on the market last year. Since then, driven by the celebrity effect, more and more celebrity best-selling models strive to replace lithium iron phosphate batteries upstream.

According to relevant calculations, in 2020, six of the top 10 new-powered models sold in China's shopping malls have now launched lithium iron phosphate versions. Explosive models such as Tesla Model3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In addition, BAIC EC/EU series, SAIC-GM-Wuling Baojun E series, Changan Auchan, Hezhong New Power Nezha series and other pure electric passenger vehicles have also launched models supporting lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Entering the threshold of 2021, Great Wall Euler, who focuses on young and trendy roads, is impatient. At the beginning of the year, it announced the official launch of Euler's black cat cute pet version, and its battery pack was replaced with a lithium iron phosphate battery from the original ternary battery. Xiaopeng sedan also first launched the lithium iron phosphate version of P7 and G3 in the 'new forces of car building' in early March. In addition, Aspiration Sedan also stated in an internal letter that future models will include a price range of 150,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and it is reported that its low-priced models will also use lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Behind the trend of the lithium iron phosphate version of the model is the power of lithium iron as a 'cost-reducing killer', and following the promotion and application of CTP and blade battery technology, the energy density of the system has been 'changed against the sky'. The sales of supporting models have exploded.

Taking Tesla as an example, CITIC Securities Chen said that Tesla (Shanghai)'s Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version is replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries, calculated according to the unit battery pack of 0.10 yuan / Wh cost savings, each A battery pack can reduce costs by about 0.5 million yuan. In 2020, with the blessing of lithium iron phosphate batteries, Tesla has already lowered the price of Model 3 produced in its Shanghai factory from more than 300,000 yuan to 249,900 yuan, which also helped Tesla in the Chinese market. Completed the 'myth' of annual sales of over 100,000 vehicles.

2. Is expected to replace Sanyuancheng's 'dominant'?

Because of the hot sales of related models, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased significantly. From the data point of view, in 2020, the sale of ternary batteries in Chinese shopping malls was 34.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%; the sale of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 30.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. In the 'Model Catalog (First Batch of 2021)', the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery models has now reached 78%. Meanwhile, the proportion of supporting passenger cars has also increased from the previous highest 40% to 50%. %.

It is clear and clear that the professional format of power batteries, which was dominated by ternary batteries, is undergoing drastic changes, and lithium iron phosphate batteries will usher in a new trend of rise. Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Power, Ruipu Power, Honeycomb Power, AVIC Lithium and other manufacturers with iron-lithium production lines will continue to benefit from it. Industry insiders estimate that 2021 will usher in a big year of increased demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an estimated year-on-year increase of up to 80%.

In fact, many companies are accelerating production expansion preparations. In addition to the aforementioned Ningde era to increase lithium iron phosphate production capacity, the current BYD blade battery production capacity is also rapidly expanding. It is reported that its five production bases in Chongqing, Changsha, Bengbu, Guiyang and Hefei have been built, are under construction and planned for blade battery production capacity close to 135GWh. In addition, in the first quarter of this year, in less than a month, Yiwei Lithium Energy released two announcements, with a total investment of 4.9 billion yuan to expand production aimed at the passenger car lithium iron phosphate battery market.

CITIC Securities pointed out that now Tesla, Daimler and other major overseas new-powered car companies have also clarified the lithium iron phosphate battery path, and it is estimated that other overseas car companies such as BMW and Volkswagen will also choose iron phosphate in their electrification path. Lithium battery supporting program, lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to complete the global supporting program. With the introduction of more models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will remain strong for a long time.

A study published by Wood Mackenzie, an international shopping mall research organization, stated that lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to surpass nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary batteries to become the dominant electrical energy storage chemical in the next ten years, and they will stand firm in the energy storage market. Behind the heels will gradually occupy a dominant position in the field of electric cars.

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